Probablility Tree Calculator

Probablility Tree Calculator

Build out a branching tree of outcomes. Every fork's two branches are complements — set the probability on one and the other is filled in as 1 − a automatically. At the end of any branch, score how much you want that outcome ("Desire"), and the tool multiplies it through by the odds of getting there to give you an expected value for the whole decision.

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Desire is just a number you choose (try a simple scale like −10 to +10, worst to best) — it doesn't need real units. "EV" on each branch end is chance × desire; the total at the top sums every branch end, so you can compare it against a different decision by editing the root node or building a second tree.